LW-06-108 Forecasting Global Supply and Demand for Lubricant Basestocks

Description:

According to some high profile prognosticators, we should have been long on base oil in 2006 and prices should have been down. But it didn’t happen that way. Instead, basestock supply was tight for most of the year and prices were up in 2006. This paper examines why these and other forecasts about the business missed the market. And most importantly, what can be learned from these prognostications and the past to help us better predict and prepare for global basestock supply and demand balance in the future.