SUM-23-59 US Gasoline Demand - How Not to Sink with the Ship

Description:

The composition of the US passenger car fleet is changing rapidly with the growing adoption of electric vehicles. US gasoline demand will peak at levels lower than pre-pandemic and then decline. The ship that has often kept global refining afloat will start to sink! Not all is lost, as life rafts are available, as gasoline demand in Latin America and Africa will continue to grow, with US refiners being more competitive than Europeans. Global petrochemical demand growth will provide some support to naphtha, but that will likely be in emerging economies. These export opportunities are unlikely to fully counter the decline in US gasoline demand, so how much US capacity is at risk of rationalization if they “do nothing”? What are the technology options that refiners should consider to align with shifting local demand patterns, that add value. What refinery scale is necessary to deliver a sustainable source of competitive advantage?