AM-14-59 Natural Gas in Transportation: The Impact on Oil Demand in the U.S. and Beyond

Description:

One of the key sectors for natural gas penetration is commercial vehicles. There are numerous challenges with natural gas as a fuel, such as its lower energy density, current lack of re-fuelling infrastructure and higher vehicle purchase costs. However, the lower fuel costs favour penetration in the commercial vehicle sector, as the selection of an LNG truck over diesel has a payback period of less than 5 years if it has an annual mileage of over 100 000 miles. In China, the equivalent payback period is around 1 year, which explains why China is already the largest NGV market and is growing at a fast pace. We project the US to eventually become the second largest NGV market, but not until 2030 and beyond.