AM-17-13 Canadian Oil Sands at the Crossroads: Can Its Tremendous Potential Still be Realized?

Description:

The Canadian Oil Sands is both a symbol of immense wealth and a national potential as yet unfulfilled. The third largest repository of crude in the world, it once held a promise of ushering Canada into the leagues of energy superpowers alongside Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia. Only five years ago its productive capacity was growing by leaps and bounds, consistently staying on a trajectory which would have seen production capacity double by the end of 2025 and put its oil output on par with that of Iran. Today, the outlook has drastically changed. The Oil Sands, just as the rest of the global energy industry, has been scarred by the 2014 price decline and has had its growth outlook depressed by a series of challenges ranging from higher competition, due to new sources of supply (such as US tight oil), to environmental opposition and an increasingly inefficient regulatory environment; all of which have hindered industry’s ability to expand into new markets. Despite these challenges, however, the Oil Sands potential has not been diminished. While productivity of conventional resources elsewhere is declining, that of the Oil Sands is still growing and filling a much needed gap in global heavy crude supply. What is uncertain is how quickly its development growth can accelerate - an outcome highly contingent on where and how quickly Oil Sands crude finds a home in new markets. This is a complex question which requires analysis that intersects issues as varied as geopolitical development, dynamics of North American crude production growth, evolution of North American and global refining demand and timeliness (and nature) of much needed future transportation infrastructure developments.