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AM-97-24 THE ILLUSORY FLEXIBILITY OF THE COMPLEX MODEL: A GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE COMPLEX MODEL FOR REFINERY BLENDING FLEXIBILITY

William W. Cason, Esq.; Mayor, Day, Caldwell & Keeton, L.L.P. Houston, Texas

Format:
Electronic (digital download/no shipping)

Associate Member, International Member, Petrochemical Member, Refining Member - $0.00
Government, NonMember - $35.00

Description:

The process of gasoline reformulation has, during the past 7 years, been a difficult and confusing journey which is still not complete.’ In the year 2000 Phase II of reformulation begins, with tighter specifications for NO, and Volatile Organic Compound emissions (“VOC’s”). Compliance with the new standardsis determinedu sing the Complex Model, a system of nonlinear equations that purport to model the anticipated emissions from the U.S. automotive fleet as a function of eight motor fuel properties.* Unfortunately, calling the existing model “complex” is a significant understatement. The model is so complicated that its inner workings are understood by a very few individuals, and even those unique people have difficulty visualizing the interactions of the variables. This paper provides a visual tool for understanding the interaction of the variables in the complex model, and evaluating the range of flexibility that is likely to greet the refining industry as they move forward into the reformulated world, particularly when the more stringent requirements of Phase II are implemented. The concern about loss of flexibility is heightened by the recent proposal to alter the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, a proposal that has been the target of intense criticism. Simultaneously, the Ozone Transport Assessment Group (“OTAG”) has suggestedfu rther reformulation with a new focus on NO, emissions. As changesi n emissions targets are evaluated, it is inevitable that the Complex Model will be used to evaluate anticipated changes in gasoline. Understanding this mathematical construct is therefore vital to understanding the solution space within which refineries will be forced to operate when blending reformulated gasoline. This understanding is also vital if industry is to avoid illusory promises of flexibility in future regulatory negotiations.

Product Details:

Product ID: AM-97-24
Publication Year: 1997