“ANSWERING THE BIG TURNAROUND QUESTION”

Description:

This paper describes a risk-based model developed by Lyondell/Equistar to assist with turnaround timing decisions. The model, which will be illustrated with a case study, is based on four factors: 1) the probabilistic cost of failure due to an unplanned outage, 2) planning and execution costs, 3) life cycle costs, and 4) business environment impacts. A focus of this paper will be the presentation of a risk-based methodology for quantifying the probability and cost of an unplanned outage over time.