LW-01-136 GF-3 IMPACT ON THE BASE OIL MARKET

Description:

New engine oil specifications, crude price swings, and other industry factors have made life interesting for base oil manufacturers and customers in 2001. In this paper we take a look at some of the technical factors that might be contributing to recent movements in the base oil market. Over the past five years, virtually all the major base oil manufacturers have invested heavily in Group II technology. About half of the base oil volume in North America has now been transformed to Group II quality. Such rapid transformations are rare in the base oil industry. These changes have triggered rapid changes in finished lubricant technology. Engine manufacturers have taken advantage of the abundant supply of Group II oils by proposing and/or introducing tougher specifications for oxidation stability and volatility in new engine oils. GF-3 quality is not required for PCMO until the end of 2001, but its effects are already being felt in the base oil market. Although Group II stocks are widely available; a price differential has appeared between Group I and Group II stocks - for the first time in history. What is driving the current price differential? How will the OEMs, additive companies, and base oil manufacturers respond? What are the implications for the base oil market? This paper discusses in more detail some of the technical factors that could swing the markets either way.