PD-09-109 How Best To Represent Complex Process Operations in Refinery LP Models

Description:

The vast majority of petroleum refiners use simple linear “Base-Delta” models to represent complex process units in their most important economic and planning tool, the venerable LP. In this paper, a typical refinery LP will be used as a basis to quantify what level of technical detail makes sense in representing key units such as FCCs, hydrocrackers, and reformers in an LP. The study will start with the simplest approach (fixed yields), to the industry’s current accepted methodology (Base-Delta) to the use of more advanced (non-linear models) and investigate if use of these different models lead to economically different optimum operations. As a side study, we will look at the penalty refiners pay for the inaccurate yields and properties generated by poor or outdated unit models in the LP.