PD-14-1 Optimization of Diesel Hydrotreating Unit Operations using a Time Series ARMAX Model

Description:

This paper illustrates the use of a time series auto-regressive moving average model with explanatory variables (ARMAX) to optimize the operations of a diesel hydro-treating (DHT) unit. The ARMAX model predicts the DHT unit performance and Monte Carlo simulation accounts for the inherent process variability. This study demonstrates how operations can consistently meet sulfur product specifications at lower reactor temperatures than typically run at by maintaining produced diesel sulfur within a certain operating target range. The results of the analysis determine the optimum sulfur operating target and associated control limits for the advanced process control (APC) system.